Ukuhlaziywa kwenkambiso yesikhathi esizayo yemakethe kazwelonke yokuhweba ngekhabhoni

Ngomhla ziyisi-7 kuJulayi, imakethe kazwelonke yokuhweba ngokukhipha isikhutha ekugcineni yavulwa ngokusemthethweni emehlweni awo wonke umuntu, okuphawula igxathu elikhulu enqubweni yembangela enkulu yaseChina yokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni.Kusukela kumshini we-CDM kuya kumshayeli wesifundazwe wokuhweba ngokungcoliswa komoya, cishe iminyaka engamashumi amabili yokuhlola, kusukela ekubuzeni imibuzo kuya ekuphaphameni kokwazi, ekugcineni kungenise lo mzuzu wokudla ifa okwedlule kanye nokukhanyisa ikusasa.Imakethe ye-carbon kazwelonke isanda kuqeda isonto elilodwa lokuhweba, futhi kulesi sihloko, sizohumusha ukusebenza kwemakethe ye-carbon evikini lokuqala ngombono wochwepheshe, sihlaziye futhi sibikezele izinkinga ezikhona kanye nezitayela zentuthuko zesikhathi esizayo.(Umthombo: Singularity Energy Author: Wang Kang)

1. Ukubhekwa kwemakethe kazwelonke yokuhweba ngekhabhoni isonto elilodwa

Ngomhla ziyisi-7 kuJulayi, usuku lokuvulwa kwemakethe kazwelonke yokuhweba ngekhabhoni, kwathengiswa amathani ayizigidi eziyi-16.410 esivumelwano sokufakwa ohlwini, ngenzuzo engama-yuan ayizigidi ezimbili, futhi intengo yokuvala yayingu-1.51 yuan/ton, ikhuphuke ngo-23.6% enanini lokuvula, futhi intengo ephakeme kakhulu kuseshini yayingu-73.52 yuan/ ton.Intengo yokuvala yosuku ibiphezulu kancane kunesibikezelo sokuvumelana kwemboni sika-8-30 yuan, futhi ivolumu yokuhweba ngosuku lokuqala nayo yayiphezulu kunalokho obekulindelwe, futhi ukusebenza osukwini lokuqala ngokuvamile kwakhuthazwa imboni.

Kodwa-ke, ivolumu yokuhweba ngosuku lokuqala ngokuyinhloko yayivela kumabhizinisi okulawula nokulawula ukukhishwa ukuze abambe umnyango, kusukela ngosuku lwesibili lokuhweba, nakuba intengo ye-quota iqhubekile nokukhuphuka, ivolumu yokwenziwayo yehle kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa nosuku lokuqala lokuhweba, njengoba kukhonjisiwe emfanekisweni nasethebulani elilandelayo.

Ithebula 1 Uhlu lweviki lokuqala lemakethe kazwelonke yokuhweba ngokukhipha isikhutha

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Umfanekiso 2 Isabelo sokuhweba evikini lokuqala lemakethe yekhabhoni kazwelonke

Ngokokuthambekela kwamanje, intengo yezibonelelo kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale izinzile futhi ikhuphuke ngenxa yokwaziswa okulindelekile kwezibonelelo zekhabhoni, kodwa ukuhweba kwazo zisalokhu kuphansi.Uma kubalwa ngokwesilinganiso somthamo wokuhweba wansuku zonke wamathani angu-30,4 (ivolumu yokuhweba emaphakathi ezinsukwini ezi-2 ezilandelayo izikhathi ezingu-2), izinga lokushintshwa komsebenzi lonyaka licishe libe ngu-<>% kuphela, futhi umthamo ungase unyuswe lapho ukusebenza isikhathi siyeza, kodwa izinga lokushintshwa konyaka alikabi ithemba.

Okwesibili, izinkinga ezinkulu ezikhona

Ngokusekelwe kwinqubo yokwakhiwa kwemakethe kazwelonke yokuhweba ekhishwa yikhabhoni kanye nokusebenza kweviki lokuqala lemakethe, imakethe yekhabhoni yamanje ingaba nalezi zinkinga ezilandelayo:

Okokuqala, indlela yamanje yokukhipha izibonelelo yenza kube nzima ngokuhweba kwemakethe yekhabhoni ukulinganisa ukuzinza kwentengo kanye ne-liquidity eqhubekayo.Okwamanje, ama-quota akhishwa mahhala, futhi inani eliphelele lezabelo ngokuvamile lanele, ngaphansi kwe-cap-trade mechanism, ngoba izindleko zokuthola ama-quota zinguziro, uma ukunikezwa sekugcwele ngokweqile, inani lekhabhoni lingawela kalula ku- intengo yaphansi;Kodwa-ke, uma intengo ye-carbon izinzile ngokuphathwa okulindelekile noma ezinye izinyathelo, nakanjani izonciphisa umthamo wayo wokuhweba, okungukuthi, izoba yigugu.Nakuba wonke umuntu ekushayele ihlombe ukwenyuka kwamanani ekhabhoni okuqhubekayo, okudinga ukunakwa kakhulu ukukhathazeka okucashile kokushoda kwezimali okwanele, ukuntuleka okukhulu komthamo wokuhweba, kanye nokuntuleka kokusekelwa kwamanani ekhabhoni.

Okwesibili, amabhizinisi abamba iqhaza nezinhlobo zokuhweba azishadile.Njengamanje, ababambiqhaza emakethe ye-carbon kazwelonke banqunyelwe emabhizinisini okulawula ukungcola, futhi izinkampani ze-carbon asset eziqeqeshiwe, izikhungo zezezimali kanye nabatshalizimali ngabanye abawatholi amathikithi emakethe yokuhweba nge-carbon okwamanje, nakuba ingozi yokuqagela iyancipha, kodwa akuhambisani nokwandiswa kwesikali semali kanye nomsebenzi wemakethe.Ukuhlelwa kwabahlanganyeli kubonisa ukuthi umsebenzi oyinhloko wemakethe yekhabhoni yamanje usekusebenzeni kwamabhizinisi okulawula ukungcola, futhi imali yesikhathi eside ayinakusekelwa ngabangaphandle.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izinhlobo zokuhweba ziyizindawo ezilinganiselwe kuphela, ngaphandle kokungena kwekusasa, izinketho, phambili, ukushintshaniswa nokunye okuphuma kuyo, kanye nokuntuleka kwamathuluzi okuthola amanani asebenzayo nezindlela zokubiyela ubungozi.

Okwesithathu, ukwakhiwa kohlelo lokuqapha nokuqinisekisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kusekude phambili.Izimpahla zekhabhoni ziyimpahla ebonakalayo esekelwe kudatha yokukhishwa kwekhabhoni, futhi imakethe yekhabhoni ingabonakali kakhulu kunezinye izimakethe, futhi ubuqiniso, ukuphelela nokunemba kwedatha yokukhipha ikhabhoni yebhizinisi kuyisisekelo sokwethembeka kwemakethe yekhabhoni.Ubunzima bokuqinisekisa idatha yamandla kanye nesistimu yezikweletu zezenhlalakahle engaphelele kuphazamise kakhulu ukuthuthukiswa kokuphathwa kwamandla enkontileka, futhi i-Erdos High-tech Materials Company ibike ngamanga idatha yokukhishwa kwekhabhoni nezinye izinkinga, okungenye yezizathu zokuhlehliswa kuvulwa imakethe yekhabhoni kazwelonke, kungacatshangwa ukuthi ngokwakhiwa kwezinto zokwakha, usimende, imboni yamakhemikhali nezinye izimboni ezisebenzisa amandla ahlukahlukene, izinqubo zokukhiqiza eziyinkimbinkimbi kanye nokukhishwa kwezinqubo ezahlukahlukene emakethe, ukuthuthukiswa kwe-MRV. Uhlelo luzoba nobunzima obukhulu okufanele bunqotshwe ekwakhiweni kwemakethe yekhabhoni.

Okwesine, izinqubomgomo ezifanele zezimpahla ze-CCER azicacile.Nakuba isilinganiso se-offset sezimpahla ze-CCER ezingena emakethe ye-carbon silinganiselwe, sinomthelela osobala ekudluliseni amasignali entengo ukuze kubonakale inani lemvelo lamaphrojekthi okunciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni, ebukwa kakhulu amandla amasha, amandla asabalalisiwe, osinki bekhabhoni yamahlathi nokunye okufanelekile. amaqembu, futhi iphinde ibe yindawo yokungena yokuthi amabhizinisi amaningi abambe iqhaza emakethe yekhabhoni.Kodwa-ke, amahora okuvulwa kwe-CCER, ukuba khona kwamaphrojekthi akhona nangakakhishwa, isilinganiso se-offset kanye nobubanzi bemiklamo esekelwayo akukacaci futhi kungqubuzana, okuvimbela imakethe ye-carbon ukukhuthaza ukuguqulwa kwamandla nogesi ngezinga elikhulu.

Okwesithathu, izici nokuhlaziywa kwethrendi

Ngokusekelwe ekuqapheliseni okungenhla nokuhlaziywa kwezinkinga, sahlulela ukuthi imakethe kazwelonke yesibonelelo sokukhishwa kwekhabhoni izobonisa izici ezilandelayo namathrendi:

(1) Ukwakhiwa kwemakethe yekhabhoni kazwelonke kuwuhlelo oluyinkimbinkimbi

Okokuqala wukubheka ukulingana phakathi kokuthuthukiswa komnotho kanye nemvelo.Njengezwe elisathuthuka, umsebenzi wokuthuthukisa umnotho waseShayina usenzima kakhulu, futhi isikhathi esisishiyelwe ngemuva kokufinyelela esicongweni sokungathathi hlangothi siyiminyaka engama-30 kuphela, futhi ubunzima bomsebenzi buphezulu kakhulu kunobamazwe aseNtshonalanga athuthukile.Ukulinganisa ubudlelwano phakathi kwentuthuko kanye nokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni kanye nokulawula inani eliphelele lokukhuphuka ngokushesha okukhulu kunganikeza izimo ezivumayo zokungathathi hlangothi okulandelayo, futhi "ukukhulula kuqala bese kuqiniswa" cishe kuzoshiya ubunzima nezingozi zesikhathi esizayo.

Okwesibili wukubheka ukungalingani phakathi kwentuthuko yesifunda kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezimboni.Izinga lokuthuthukiswa komnotho nenhlalakahle kanye nokunikezwa kwezinsiza ezifundeni ezahlukene zaseShayina liyahlukahluka kakhulu, futhi ukukhuphuka okuhlelekile nokungathathi hlangothi ezindaweni ezihlukahlukene ngokwezimo ezihlukene kuhambisana nesimo sangempela saseShayina, ukuhlola indlela yokusebenza kwemakethe ye-carbon kazwelonke.Ngokufanayo, izimboni ezihlukene zinekhono elihlukile lokuthwala amanani entengo yekhabhoni, futhi indlela yokukhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa okunokulinganisela kwezimboni ezihlukahlukene ngokukhishwa kwesabelo kanye nezindlela zokubeka amanani ekhabhoni nakho kuyindaba ebalulekile okufanele icatshangelwe.

Okwesithathu ubunkimbinkimbi bendlela yentengo.Ngokombono omkhulu nowesikhathi eside, amanani ekhabhoni anqunywa umnotho omkhulu, ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni jikelele, kanye nenqubekelaphambili yobuchwepheshe bekhabhoni ephansi, futhi ngokombono, amanani ekhabhoni kufanele alingane nezindleko ezimaphakathi zokonga amandla kanye ukunciphisa ukungcola emphakathini wonke.Kodwa-ke, ngokombono wesikhathi esincane kanye neseduze, ngaphansi komkhawulo kanye nendlela yokuhweba, amanani ekhabhoni anqunywa ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo sempahla ye-carbon, futhi ulwazi lwamazwe ngamazwe lubonisa ukuthi uma indlela yokuhweba nokuhweba ingenangqondo, kubangela ukushintshashintsha okukhulu kwamanani e-carbon.

Okwesine ubunkimbinkimbi besistimu yedatha.Idatha yamandla iwumthombo wedatha obaluleke kakhulu wokubalwa kwekhabhoni, ngoba izinhlangano ezahlukene zokuphakela amandla zizimele ngokuqhathaniswa, uhulumeni, izikhungo zomphakathi, amabhizinisi ekubambeni kwedatha yamandla akuphelele futhi akunembile, ukuqoqwa kwedatha yamandla esezingeni eligcwele, ukuhlunga kukhulu kakhulu. kunzima, isizindalwazi somlando wokukhishwa kwekhabhoni silahlekile, kunzima ukusekela ukunqunywa kwenani eliphelele kanye nokwabiwa kwesabelo sebhizinisi kanye nokulawula okukhulu kukahulumeni, ukwakhiwa kohlelo lokuqapha ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni elizwakalayo kudinga imizamo yesikhathi eside.

(2) Imakethe yekhabhoni kazwelonke izoba sesikhathini eside sokuthuthukiswa

Esimeni sokuncishiswa okuqhubekayo kwezwe kwezindleko zamandla kanye nogesi ukuze kwehliswe umthwalo emabhizinisini, kulindeleke ukuthi isikhala sokuhambisa amanani e-carbon emabhizinisini sibe sincane, okunquma ukuthi amanani e-carbon aseChina angeke abe phezulu kakhulu, ngakho-ke indima enkulu yemakethe yekhabhoni ngaphambi kokukhuphuka kwekhabhoni kusewukwenza ngcono indlela yemakethe.Umdlalo phakathi kukahulumeni namabhizinisi, ohulumeni abakhulu kanye nohulumeni basekhaya, uzoholela ekwabiweni okuxekethile kwezabelo, indlela yokusabalalisa isazoba mahhala, futhi inani lentengo ye-carbon lizosebenza ngezinga eliphansi (kulindeleke ukuthi intengo ye-carbon izohlala kububanzi obungu-50-80 yuan / ton esikhathini esiningi esizayo, futhi isikhathi sokuthobela singase sikhuphuke kafushane siye ku-100 yuan / ton, kodwa sisephansi uma siqhathaniswa nemakethe ye-carbon yaseYurophu kanye nesidingo sokushintsha kwamandla).Noma ikhombisa izici zenani eliphezulu lekhabhoni kodwa ukuntuleka okukhulu kwe-liquidity.

Kulokhu, umthelela wemakethe yekhabhoni ekukhuthazeni uguquko lwamandla esimeme awubonakali, nakuba intengo yamanje yesibonelelo ingaphezu kwesibikezelo sangaphambilini, kodwa inani eliphelele lisaphansi uma liqhathaniswa namanye amanani emakethe ye-carbon market njenge-Europe kanye ne- I-United States, okulingana nezindleko zekhabhoni nge-kWh ngayinye yamandla amalahle engezwe ku-0.04 yuan/kWh (ngokuvumelana nokuphuma kwamandla ashisayo nge-kWh ngayinye engama-800g).I-Carbon dioxide (i-carbon dioxide), ebonakala inomthelela othile, kodwa le ngxenye yezindleko zekhabhoni izokwengezwa kuphela kwisabelo eseqile, esinendima ethile ekukhuthazeni uguquko olwengeziwe, kodwa indima yokuguqulwa kwesitoko incike ekuqinisweni okuqhubekayo kwezabelo.

Ngasikhathi sinye, ukuswelakala kwemali kuzophazamisa ukulinganiswa kwezimpahla zekhabhoni ezimakethe zezezimali, ngoba izimpahla ezingekho emthethweni zinemali ephansi futhi zizokwehliswa ekuhlolweni kwenani, ngaleyo ndlela kube nomthelela ekuthuthukisweni kwemakethe yekhabhoni.I-liquidity empofu nayo ayihambisani nokuthuthukiswa nokuhweba kwezimpahla ze-CCER, uma izinga lokushintshwa kwemakethe ye-carbon yonyaka liphansi kunesaphulelo esivumelekile se-CCER offset, kusho ukuthi i-CCER ayikwazi ukungena ngokugcwele emakethe ye-carbon ukuze isebenzise inani layo, futhi intengo yayo izoba. zicindezelwe kakhulu, kube nomthelela ekuthuthukisweni kwamaphrojekthi ahlobene.

(3) Ukunwetshwa kwemakethe yekhabhoni kazwelonke kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwemikhiqizo kuzokwenziwa kanyekanye

Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, imakethe yekhabhoni kazwelonke izonqoba kancane kancane ubuthakathaka bayo.Eminyakeni engu-2-3 ezayo, izimboni ezinkulu eziyisishiyagalombili zizofakwa ngendlela ehlelekile, inani eliphelele kulindeleke ukuthi likhule libe amathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-80-90 ngonyaka, inani lamabhizinisi afakiwe lizofinyelela ku-7-8,4000, futhi inani lezimpahla zemakethe lizofinyelela ku-5000-<> ngokuya ngenani lebhiliyoni lenani le-carbon yamanje.Ngokuthuthukiswa kohlelo lokuphathwa kwekhabhoni kanye nethimba lamathalente elichwepheshile, izimpahla zekhabhoni ngeke zisasetshenziselwa ukusebenza kuphela, futhi isidingo sokuvuselela impahla yekhabhoni ekhona ngokusungula izinto ezintsha zezimali sizoba namandla kakhulu, okuhlanganisa nezinsizakalo zezezimali ezifana ne-carbon forward, i-carbon swap. , inketho yekhabhoni, ukuqashiswa kwekhabhoni, amabhondi ekhabhoni, i-carbon asset securitization kanye nezimali zekhabhoni.

Izimpahla ze-CCER kulindeleke ukuthi zingene emakethe yekhabhoni ekupheleni konyaka, futhi izindlela zokuhambisana nezinkampani zizothuthukiswa, futhi indlela yokudlulisa amanani emakethe yekhabhoni iye kumandla amasha, izinsizakalo zamandla adidiyelwe kanye nezinye izimboni izothuthukiswa.Ngokuzayo, izinkampani zezimpahla zekhabhoni ezingochwepheshe, izikhungo zezezimali kanye nabatshalizimali ngabanye bangangena emakethe yokuhweba ngekhabhoni ngendlela ehlelekile, bakhuthaze ababambiqhaza abahlukahlukene emakethe yekhabhoni, imiphumela esobala kakhulu yokuhlanganisa imali, kanye nezimakethe ezisebenzayo kancane kancane, ngaleyo ndlela bakhe umnotho ohamba kancane. umjikelezo.


Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jul-19-2023